Purpose:

The purpose of this assignment is for you to demonstrate how to create a 24 month qualitative forecast. Its expected outcomes should have the student provide an understanding of how a customer’s demand is forecasted, assessed and measured for accuracy and customer satisfaction.

Instructions:

Jones Company distributes power supplies used for electronic toys.  They have been in business for five years and the past five-year demand for power supply X52 is the following: 

Year

Demand

1

12,925

2

17,263

3

22,512

4

28,765

5

31,646

Assume it’s January 1 and Jones needs help with developing the forecast for the next two years.  Complete the following tasks to help Jones:

1. Create a 24-month qualitative forecast.  You can use a method of your choosing. Make sure you identify the assumptions you relied on and discuss how you developed the forecast.
2. Create a linear regression forecast for the next two years.  MAKE SURE TO SHOW ALL CALCULATIONS FOR FULL CREDIT. Assume your forecast for the first six months of the first year is the following: JAN 2,000; FEB 2,800, MAR 3,200, APR 2,800; MAY 3,500; JUNE 3,300.  Also, assume actual customer demand is the following: JAN 2,500; FEB 2,700, MAR 3,000, APR 2,600; MAY 3,200; JUNE 3,000.  The acceptable tracking signal target is 1.5.  Will you need to update your forecast for Jones? If so when should you do this? MAKE SURE TO SHOW ALL CALCULATIONS FOR FULL CREDIT.
3. Write a memo summarizing and defining the conclusions drawn in completing your two year linear regression forecast. Your memo is to be addressed to the CEO of Jones Company(Amanda Jones).

NOTE:  All submitted work is to be your original work. You may not use any work from another student, the Internet or an online clearinghouse.  You are expected to understand the Academic Dishonesty and Plagiarism Policy, and know that it is your responsibility to learn about instructor and general academic expectations with regard to proper citation of sources as specified in the APA Publication Manual, 6th Ed. (Students are held accountable for in-text citations and an associated reference list only). 

Required Elements of the Customer Qualitative Forecast Memo :

1. Create a 24-month qualitative forecast.  You can use a method of your choosing. Make sure you identify the assumptions you relied on and discuss how you developed the forecast.
2. Create a linear regression forecast for the next two years.
3. Create a memo summarizing your work, and clearly defining, supporting and explaining the logic used in drawing your conclusions. The memo should be suitable for presentation to the CEO of Jones Company and addressed to same (Amanda Jones). All conclusions must be substantiated by the course material. Use of outside sources is not acceptable.

Required Formatting of Customer Qualitative Forecast Memo :

• This report should be double spaced (despite the fact that a regular business memo is single spaced), 12-point font, title page, intext citations and reference page, and follow the headings format found in this link Owl English Perdue Business Memo Format. 
• Third person writing is required.  Third person means that there are no words such as “I, me, my, we, or us” (first person writing), nor is there use of “you or your” (second person writing).  If uncertain how to write in the third person, view this link: http://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/first-second-and-third-person;
• Contractions are not used in business writing, so you are expected NOT to use contractions in writing this assignment.
• Use APA formatting for in-text citations and reference page.  You are expected to paraphrase and not use quotes. Deductions will be taken when quotes are used and found to be unnecessary;
• The expectation is that you provide a robust use of the course readings.  No other books besides the course eBook can be used.   When using a source document, the expectation is that the information is cited and referenced with a page or paragraph number;
• Do not use wiki files;