Probability AnalysisA General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.Options:FacilityDemand OptionsProbabilityActionsExpected PayoffsLargeLow Demand0.4Do Nothing($10)Low Demand0.4Reduce Prices$50High Demand0.6$70SmallLow Demand0.4$40High Demand0.6Do Nothing$40High Demand0.6Overtime$50High Demand0.6Expand$55Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:Build Small:Low Demand0.4($40)=$16High Demand0.6($55)=$33Build Large:Low Demand0.4($50)=$20High Demand0.6($70)=$42Determination of Expected Value of each alternativeBuild Small: $16+$33=$49Build Large: $20+$42=$62.next.ecollege.com/pub/content/6bcd40ea-2802-460b-bfb0-6b01634994b3/AU_BUS499_StatisticalTerms.docx”>Click here for the Statistical Terms review sheet.Submit your conclusion in a Word document to the M4: Assignment 2 Dropbox by Wednesday, August 13, 2014.Assignment 2 Grading CriteriaMaximum PointsThe diagram is accurate and labeled correctly. The diagram clearly illustrates the sequence of events and their probability of occurrences.32A step-by-step breakdown of the calculations for the chance of probability and respective payoff is clearly communicated. The results of the calculations are accurate.28A step-by-step breakdown of the calculations for expected value is clearly communicated. The results of the calculations are accurate.20Clear and concise statement explaining the decision and a description of elements that lead to the decision.20Total:100
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