Module 2 – CaseDecision trees and the Delphi ProcedureSTOP! Have you read, studied, and understood all of the course materials, including the Module HomePage and the sources listed under Background Info? If you haven’t, then do so before attempting thisCase.As with all Trident courses, you’re expected to provide references and citations. It’s recommended youuse the sources listed in the Module. Resist the temptation to browse the Web, looking for “clues.”There’s a lot of confusing stuff out there, and much of it is irrelevant. This Module contains all theinformation you need. Study it – use it!Case AssignmentAll land within the municipality of Springfield is zoned for either agricultural, residential or commercialuse. You have just purchased a parcel of agricultural land for $20,000 in the expectation that it will berezoned next year. But the rezoning is controversial, and will be decided by the full City Council ratherthan just the Zoning Commission.According to your inside sources, there’s a 30% chance the land will be rezoned for commercial use; inthat event, you’ll be able to sell the land for $50,000. But the populists on the Council are pushing formore affordable housing; if they win the vote, which your sources think has a likelihood of 50%, then theland will be rezoned for residential use, and you’ll only be able to sell it for $30,000. Of course, theGreens may win, and the land won’t be rezoned at all. In that event, it will still be worth what you paidfor it, but no more than that.You’ve just been approached by Mr. Hi Roller. He’s a land speculator like yourself, but he doesn’t haveyour inside sources. He thinks the land will be rezoned next year, and has offered you $30,000 cash forit, right now.Which alternative should you choose? Explain your decision process in detail.Please read and heed the hints given in Case 1. The same general advice is applicable in this Case, inparticular:1. Read the source materials before beginning.2. The Case is about decision trees, not flipping real estate.3. Follow standard format. A cover page, a short discussion, references and citations are allrequired.Assignment ExpectationsProvide a table summarizing the factual data.Explain the computations used to obtain the numbers in the table.Present a decision tree. (This may be hand-drawn, but it must be completely legible.)Explain the results of your computations, and how they support your answer.
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